Wednesday, August 12
Today’s number is 39.6%
39.6%
If you average all ten recent polls conducted in the Wisconsin gubernatorial Democratic primary, the average level of support for Francesca Hong was 39.6%. As of this writing, she received 39.4% of the vote.
Those surveys also showed Hong leading her next closest opponent by an average of 17 points.
However, the same polls said that up to 28% of voters were undecided in late July, and the field changed several times as candidates exited and entered the race (or in the case of the winner, David Crowley, both).
Primary polling can be unreliable, especially when it comes from partisan sources. One poll sponsored by Crowley in August had him down 18 points at 24%.
But overall, the “average” – even including partisan polls – accurately estimated Hong’s level of support, and because of that, also implied that a unity challenger could win the race.
